What Barry Donadio Predicts For Gaza, Syria, Israel, Greenland, Panama.
On January 23rd 2025, National Security Stagiest Barry Donadio was interviewed by Amina Zaki of El Dostor News in Cairo, Egypt. Whats going to happen in these key places under the new Trump administration and will there be peace? Barry Donadio has some predictions on how the Trump administration will react.
Will Trump move towards more hardline policies with China or will there be a start to better US-China relations?
I believe Trump will try very hard to strike new deals with China to benefit both nations. On the other hand, Trump will not allow China to take advantage of the United States on trade and other economic agreements. You will see a strong stance against China invading Taiwan. Trump will push for the U.S. and China to be on an equal footing. If Trump perceives that China is trying to take advantage of the U.S. , he will likely impose very high tariffs on goods from China.
What are Trump’s policies after arriving at the White House regarding the Russia-Ukraine war?
Trump will move to end the war in Ukraine by meeting first with Zelenzkyy to see what conditions can be brought to the negotiation table. You will then see a meeting between Trump and Putin to finalize a cease fire. Trump wants to be credited with ending the war, therefore he will go through extra lengths to solve the problem. Trump is a great peace maker and we must not forget his great achievement of meeting with the leader of North Korea. That act may indeed have prevented unforeseen hostiles on the Korean peninsula. With all of that said, Trump’s goal will to be to end the war and not continue it. I am confident that we will see the beginning of some sort of a cease fire within a month from Trump taking office.
How will Trump deal with the violence in the West Bank?
Many of Trump’s constituents want peace in Gaza and Israel. We all observed the power of Trump’s words when he said that there would be hell to pay if the Israeli hostage were not returned when he took office. We should make any mistake about it, the hostage deal that is now in place happened because of Trump’s words. It is a very good sign that there are now hostage and prisoner exchanges between Israel and Hamas. As many people in the Middle East understand, this is a very complex issue. How do we bring peace to Gaza once and for all? I believe we will see the Trump administration to continue its support of Israel against Hamas and other proxy militias of Iran until Israels goals are complete in their war. Israel will no longer permit the existence of Hamas as an armed terror group. I believe we are close to a cessation of hostilities and a solution for the region. Trump may take a bold step to move toward statehood for Palestine after Israel’s war ceases.
How do you see the future of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza?
I believe that any cease fire agreement would have to incorporate Hamas as an armed group to cease to exist on Israel’s terms. I forecast that once Israel has met its’ objectives, there will be a rebuilding of Gaza. The clock is winding down on Israel to finish its war which is being forced by world pressure. Both sides of the conflict seemed to have used the winding down of the war to get in their last blows against each other. I believe will see an end to the Israel / Hamas war within 3 months providing there are no other outside influencers. I expect that there will be huge foreign investment project in Gaza to rebuild it better than it ever was. There will be attempts at bringing tourism to Gaza, high rise condominiums, improved infrastructure, seaports, airport and rail system.
How do you see the Egyptian role in reaching this agreement? And what is the future of relations between Cairo and Washington with Trump’s return?
Egypt’s close proximity and on the ground knowledge of the situation in Gaza places it in a good position to be an important stakeholder in peace negotiations and plans for a rebuilt Gaza. Egypt can offer an expertise in problem solving during peace negotiations because of its regional ancient roots. Diplomacy of the Americans will rest heavily on Egypt and Jordan not only in an expert advisory role but also a peace making role. Egypt is a close ally of the United States and an important tourist destination. Many American speak positively about their travels to Egypt. I expect the relationship between Cairo and Washington to stay the course. I believe Washington appreciates the dialogue and relationship it has with Cairo. I do not see a deterioration in relations between the two governments.
How will Trump deal with the Panama Canal and Greenland files, will there be an escalation?
That is the question everyone seems to be asking these days. I do not see the U.S. intervening military unless the need to. There are prior written agreements for Greenland that allows the U.S. to build more bases on Greenland and add more military capacity when the need arises. This would be deemed by the U.S. when world tension rises. Trump knows this, but I do not think he wants to invest so heavily in Greenland without a financial or asset return. Then comes in the talk of buying Greenland. The world knows that Trump sometimes says things as an attention getter. This has worked effectively for him to get attention on a matter and achieve a goal. In the future, we may see huge U.S. military investment in Greenland and reopening of former U.S. military bases. There will most likely be an agreement from the government of Greenland or Denmark to pay the costs of protecting Greenland.
The U.S. has similar prior written agreements with Panama that allows the U.S. to militarize the Panama Canal Zone when it is a matter U.S. national security interests. I predict the U.S. will move to boot China out of the Panama canal and increase U.S. naval presence. If Panama does not meet up to the agreements made with the U.S., we may see a limited military action to regain full control of the Panama canal as an act of strategic necessity by the U.S.
Regarding the Lebanon file and the ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Israel..How will Trump intervene in this file?
I think Trump may let nature take its course and not intervene militarily unless requested by Israel. The situation seems to have stabilized recently and hopefully on the path to peace. I think I can speak for most everyone when I say that everyone would like to have peace in the region. The most important thing to remember is that Israel can not tolerate the existence of Hezbollah as an armed terror group. I am hopeful that the Lebanese military will occupy its own lands from of Hezbollah control or collaboration. That is when I think we will see a more stable Lebanon. Without Hezbollah in Lebanon, Israel has no reason or desire to strike at or inside Lebanon.
How will the Trump administration deal with the Al-Julani government, especially since Al-Julani belonged to terrorist organizations that Washington refuses to deal with?
The think the White House is taking a “wait and see” approach to the Syrian Al-Julani Government. Just like the Taliban in Afghanistan are not the same Taliban that they were in the year 2001. We have learned that groups change, their leadership changes and their agendas change. I am aware of HST and Ahmed Al-Sharaa being designated as a terrorist. It is possible that this group and its leader has fundamentally changed. They can be candidates for being removed for the U.S. terrorist organization list. There are steps to be taken and protocols to be met. I have reviewed recent interviews given by Ahmed Al-Sharaa. He appears to have changed his stances and it speaking more like a leader of a democratic nation than a terrorist. I believe that the steps that he and his new Syrian government are genuine and there will be peace in Syria. If Ahmed Al-Sharaa continues on the path of peace and tolerance I think way may see the Trump administration move to offering humanitarian assistance to Syria.
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